JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY(NATURAL SCIENCE) ›› 2026, Vol. 61 ›› Issue (8): 16-28.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-9352.0.2025.077

Previous Articles    

Evaluation and prediction of fresh agricultural supply chain performance driven by DC-NDEA model and LM-CNN

ZHANG Tianrui, GAO Kai, HE Quanfeng   

  1. School of Mechanical Engineering, Shenyang University, Shenyang 110044, Liaoning, China
  • Published:2026-08-12

Abstract: In the supply chain management of fresh agricultural products, the performance of cold chain logistics supply chain is one of the important factors for the sustainable development of fresh enterprises. However, there are few researches on performance evaluation and prediction at present. Therefore, considering the final output of cold chain logistics operation, combined with the characteristics of recycling in sustainable development and cross-period operation of supply chain, A Dynamic Cyclic Network Data Envelopment Analysis model is designed for performance evaluation. It is found that the changes of expected output and unexpected output have a significant impact on the performance of cold chain logistics supply chain. The model considers the interaction between different time periods, provides a perspective for managers to examine the changes of relevant factors in supply chain performance, and provides help for managers to make resource allocation and decision. Meanwhile, Levenberg-Marquard algorithm is used to im-prove Convolutional Neural Networks to predict performance with minimum absolute error. The results show that LM-CNN effectively improves the accuracy of model prediction results. By using artificial neural network to predict the performance of supply chain in the future period, it helps managers to take active measures before the inefficiency, so as to improve the efficiency of supply chain operation.

Key words: fresh produce supply chain, sustainable development, performance evaluation, performance prediction, DV-NDEA model, LM-CNN predictive model

CLC Number: 

  • F252
[1] 但斌,马崧萱,刘墨林,等. 考虑 3PL 保鲜努力的生鲜农产品供应链信息共享研究[J]. 中国管理科学,2024,32(5):122-132. Dan Bin, Ma Songxuan, Liu Molin, et al. Information sharing in the fresh produce supply chain with 3PLs fresh-keeping effort[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2024, 32(5):122-132.
[2] 冯建英,原变鱼,李鑫,等. 神经网络在生鲜农产品供应链管理中的研究进展[J]. 农业机械学报,2019,50(S1):366-373. Feng Jianying, Yuan Bianyu, Li Xin, et al. Progress of neural network in supply chain management of fresh agricultural products[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery, 2019, 50(S1):366-373.
[3] Saen R F, Yousefi F, Azadi M. Artificial intelligence powered predictions: enhancing supply chain sustainability[J]. Annals of Operations Research, 2024:1-44.
[4] Schiffer M, Luckert M, Wiendahl H H, et al. Smart supply chain-development of the equipment supplier in global value networks[C] //IFIP International Conference on Advances in Production Management Systems. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2018:176-183.
[5] Azadi M, Yousefi S, Saen R F, et al. Forecasting sustainability of healthcare supply chains using deep learning and network data envelopment analysis[J]. Journal of Business Research, 2023, 154:113357.
[6] Jauhar S K, Jani S M, Kamble S S, et al. How to use no-code artificial intelligence to predict and minimize the inventory distortions for resilient supply chains[J]. International Journal of Production Research, 2024, 62(15):5510-5534.
[7] Olabi A G, Abdelghafar A A, Maghrabie H M, et al. Application of artificial intelligence for prediction, optimization, and control of thermal energy storage systems[J]. Thermal Science and Engineering Progress, 2023, 39:101730.
[8] 秦莹. 基于AHP的生鲜农产品供应链质量风险研究[J]. 河南农业,2019(23):58-61. Qin Ying. Research on quality risk of fresh agricultural products supply chain based on AHP[J]. Agriculture of Henan, 2019(23):58-61.
[9] Liu S, Chen H, Hu Z. Research on risk assessment and early warning of supply chain based on extension in the context for new retailing[C] //Proceedings of the Sixth International Forum on Decision Sciences. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2020:1-14.
[10] 杜雯雯,徐文平. 基于ANP-VIKOR的冷链物流供应链韧性评价[J]. 物流科技,2024,47(21):139-142. Du Wenwen, Xu Wenping. Evaluation of cold chain logistics supply chain resilience based on ANP-VIKOR[J]. Logistics Sci-Tech, 2024, 47(21):139-142.
[11] 赵闯,郎坤. 基于贝叶斯网络的生鲜物流风险评估[J]. 系统科学与数学,2020,40(11):2108-2124. Zhao Chuang, Lang Kun. Fresh food logistics risk assessment based on Bayesian network[J]. Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences, 2020, 40(11):2108-2124.
[12] 张浩,邱斌,唐孟娇,等. 基于改进突变级数法的农产品冷链物流风险评估模型[J]. 系统工程学报,2018,33(3):412-421. Zhang Hao, Qiu Bin, Tang Mengjiao, et al. Risk assessment model of agricultural products cold chain logistics based on the improved catastrophe progression method[J]. Journal of Systems Engineering, 2018, 33(3):412-421.
[13] Yin M, Li G. Supply chain financial default risk early warning system based on particle swarm optimization algorithm[J]. Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2022, 2022:7255967.
[14] 张喜才,李海玲. 基于灰色与马尔科夫链模型的京津冀农产品冷链需求预测[J]. 商业经济研究,2019(15):109-111. Zhang Xicai, Li Hailing. Forecasting cold chain demand of agricultural products in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on grey and Markov chain model[J]. Journal of Commercial Economics, 2019(15):109-111.
[15] 王晓平,闫飞. 基于多源信息融合的冷链农产品需求预测模型研究综述[J]. 湖北农业科学,2018,57(15):16-20. Wang Xiaoping, Yan Fei. Review on demand forecasting model of cold chain agricultural products based on multi-source information fusion[J]. Hubei Agricultural Sciences, 2018, 57(15):16-20.
[16] 刘艳利,伍大清. 基于改进BP神经网络的水产品冷链物流需求预测研究:以浙江省为例[J]. 中国渔业经济,2020,38(5):93-101. Liu Yanli, Wu Daqing. Research on cold chain logistics demand prediction of aquatic products based on improved BP neural network: a case study of Zhejiang Province[J]. Chinese Fisheries Economics, 2020, 38(5):93-101.
[17] 陈谦,杨涵,王宝刚,等. 基于GRU神经网络模型的冷链运输温度时序预测[J]. 农业大数据学报,2022,4(1):82-88. Chen Qian, Yang Han, Wang Baogang, et al. Time series prediction of cold-chain transportation temperature based on GRU neural network model[J]. Journal of Agricultural Big Data, 2022, 4(1):82-88.
[18] Fathi A, Saen R F. A novel bidirectional network data envelopment analysis model for evaluating sustainability of distributive supply chains of transport companies[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2018, 184:696-708.
[19] Azadi E, Moghaddas Z, Saen R F, et al. Green supply chains and performance evaluation: a multiplier network analytics model with common set of weights[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2023, 411:137377.
[20] Hubel D H, Wiesel T N. Receptive fields and functional architecture of monkey striate cortex[J]. The Journal of Physiology, 1968, 195(1):215-243.
[21] Fukushima K. Neocognitron: a self-organizing neural network model for a mechanism of pattern recognition unaffected by shift in position[J]. Biological Cybernetics, 1980, 36(4):193-202.
[22] Yamashita R, Nishio M, Do R K G, et al. Convolutional neural networks: an overview and application in radiology[J]. Insights into Imaging, 2018, 9:611-629.
[1] SONG Xing-shen, YANG Yue-xiang, JIANG Yu. Efficient multiple sets intersection using SIMD instructions [J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY(NATURAL SCIENCE), 2018, 53(3): 54-62.
[2] WANG Jian1,2, GUO Li-li1, LI Yang2. Study on formal modeling method for survivability of mission-critical systems [J]. J4, 2011, 46(9): 89-94.
[3] . An endogenous economic growth model with the restraints of environment and energy [J]. J4, 2009, 44(2): 52-55.
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited

  Shared   
  Discussed   
No Suggested Reading articles found!