JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY(NATURAL SCIENCE) ›› 2026, Vol. 61 ›› Issue (10): 184-200.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-9352.0.2026.046

• Hydrological Processes and Ecological Responses • Previous Articles    

Response mechanism of water conservation function to permafrost changes in the Three-River Source Region

SHI Hongfei1, HOU Guangliang1,2*, TANG Zhonghua1   

  1. 1. College of Geographical Sciences, Qinghai Normal University, Xining 810008, Qinghai, China;
    2. Qinghai Provincial Key Laboratory of Physical Geography and Environmental Processes, Qinghai Normal University, Xining 810008, Qinghai, China
  • Published:2026-10-16

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Abstract: To elucidate the physical mechanisms by which permafrost degradation affected water conservation functions in alpine regions, and to address the cognitive limitations arising from the prevalent simplification of permafrost as a static categorical variable and the confinement of geographic detector analyses to the global scale, this study took the Three-River Headwaters Region as the study area. By coupling the InVEST model with the geographic detector, and introducing active layer thickness as a dynamic physical attribute of permafrost, we quantitatively assessed the spatiotemporal patterns of water conservation amount during 1996-2020, and conducted a comparative analysis of driving mechanisms between the permafrost zone and the seasonally frozen ground zone through a subregional approach. The results indicated that the total water conservation amount in the study area exhibited a weak and non-significant increasing trend, with a growth rate of 0.226×108 m3/a, and a spatial pattern of “high in the southeast and low in the northwest”, while a decreasing trend was observed in the northwestern permafrost zone. Precipitation emerged as the dominant factor governing the spatial differentiation of water conservation, with q values ranging from 0.699 to 0.772; the independent explanatory power of permafrost type was the weakest(q values: 0.048-0.107)but showed an increasing trend, and its interactive effect with precipitation was significantly enhanced(q values: 0.728-0.788). Notable differences in driving mechanisms were found between subregions: in the permafrost zone, precipitation played an absolutely dominant role(q values: 0.749-0.818), and the interaction between active layer thickness and precipitation exhibited a strongly synergistic enhancement(q values: 0.767-0.829), confirming the amplifying effect of the impermeable permafrost table on precipitation-runoff responses; in the seasonally frozen ground zone, a “precipitation-freeze-thaw dual-core” driving mode was identified, where active layer thickness rose to become an independent core driving factor(q values: 0.211-0.322), yet its interaction with precipitation was relatively the weakest among all precipitation combinations(q values: 0.714-0.756), indicating a significant decoupling between precipitation and freeze-thaw processes in terms of spatial driving effects. Meanwhile, during 2006-2010 and 2011-2015, the observed runoff increases were markedly higher than the increases in water conservation, with ratios of 1.75 and 1.16, respectively, suggesting signs of “hydrological decoupling”. This paper shows that permafrost influenced water conservation functions through two distinct pathways: “background aquiclude modulation” and “active layer driving”; progressive permafrost degradation might weaken the water storage and regulation capacity of alpine ecosystems, posing potential risks to the stability of water supply from the “Asian Water Tower”.

Key words: Three-River Headwater Region, water conservation function, permafrost, InVEST model, geodetector, driving mechanism analysis

CLC Number: 

  • K903
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