山东省城市化对水资源需求预测研究

山东省城市化对水资源需求预测研究

任丽军,袁存超,崔兆杰

山东大学环境科学与工程学院, 山东济南 250100

收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2006-10-24 发布日期:2006-10-24
通讯作者: 任丽军

Study on the prediction of urban water requirement of Shandong Province

REN Li-jun, YUAN Cun-chao, CUI Zhao-jie

School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250100， Shandong, China

Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2006-10-24 Published:2006-10-24
Contact: REN Li-jun

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 1995年山东省进入城市化加速发展阶段以后,其城市化水平以每年1.0%～1.5%的速度增长,城市化的高速推进使城市用水危机问题进一步加剧。文章首先采用联合国法和线性分析法对山东省城市化水平和城市人口数量进行预测;在此基础上,按照城市用水性质分类,采用情景分析法分别对城市生活、工业和生态用水量做出分析预测;最后针对山东省城市用水的预测结果,提出保障山东省城市水资源可持续利用的一些建议。

关键词: 城市化水平, 山东省, 情景分析, 城市用水

Abstract: The level of urbanization of Shandong Province has been growing at the speed of 1.0%～1.5% per year since the year 1995 and it reached 46.1％ in the year 2006. However the urbanization process at such a rapid speed made the water crisis more serious. First, the level of urbanization in the near future was predicted by use of the United Nations method and liner analysis method, so the urban population in the province was determined. Then according to the different kinds of water use, the water requirement for city-living, industry and ecology was forecasted using the scenario analysis and model prediction. Finally, some suggestions were given for sustainable water use and protection in Shandong Province.

Key words: Shandong Province, scenario analysis, urban water requirement, urbanization level

中图分类号:

TV213

任丽军,袁存超,崔兆杰 . 山东省城市化对水资源需求预测研究[J]. J4, 2008, 43(9): 27-30 .

REN Li-jun,YUAN Cun-chao,CUI Zhao-jie . Study on the prediction of urban water requirement of Shandong Province[J]. J4, 2008, 43(9): 27-30 .

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