Abstract:

On  basis of the ARIMA model, mixedtime series model and GM(1,1) model,  a combination forecast model was established by using the Chinese economic development data, and the forecasted GDP of China was applied. The resulted show that the error of this combination prediction model is smaller than the other three models, and denoted that the combination prediction model in forecasting  the timeseries data is more advantageous.

Key words: ARIMA model; combination prediction model; time series; GDP