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《山东大学学报(理学版)》 ›› 2019, Vol. 54 ›› Issue (5): 61-67,76.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-9352.0.2018.531

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投入产出网络中的关键产业

巩金秋(),徐进*(),胡发胜   

  1. 山东大学数学学院, 山东 济南 250100
  • 收稿日期:2018-09-23 出版日期:2019-05-20 发布日期:2019-05-09
  • 通讯作者: 徐进 E-mail:gongjinqiu@mail.sdu.edu.cn;jinxu@sdu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:巩金秋(1994—),女,硕士研究生,研究方向为运筹与经济分析. E-mail: gongjinqiu@mail.sdu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金资助项目(11471193);国家自然科学基金资助项目(11271006);国家自然科学基金资助项目(11631014)

Key sectors in input-output network

Jin-qiu GONG(),Jin XU*(),Fa-sheng HU   

  1. School of Mathematics, Shandong University, Jinan 250100, Shandong, China
  • Received:2018-09-23 Online:2019-05-20 Published:2019-05-09
  • Contact: Jin XU E-mail:gongjinqiu@mail.sdu.edu.cn;jinxu@sdu.edu.cn
  • Supported by:
    国家自然科学基金资助项目(11471193);国家自然科学基金资助项目(11271006);国家自然科学基金资助项目(11631014)

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摘要：

随着经济协作日益密切,产业网络关联程度的加深,部门的生产变化会波及其上游和下游部门的生产,直接或间接地影响其他部门,进而对整体经济产生影响。从部门间投入产出网络的角度,衡量每个产业部门对于总产出波动的影响。通过直接消耗系数矩阵构建投入产出网络,研究部门冲击对总产出波动的影响。在构建的投入产出网络基础上,从对总产出波动影响大小的角度,刻画关键产业,其生产冲击对整个网络的产出波动影响最大。用我国2012年投入产出数据实证分析,发现批发、零售业和农产品业通过网络关联对总产出波动影响最大,可作为关键产业。

关键词: 投入产出网络, 总产出波动, 关键产业

Abstract:

As economic cooperation becomes closer and industrial network becomes more connected, changes in sector production will affect the output of its upstream and downstream sectors, directly or indirectly affecting other sectors, and thereby affecting the overall economy. From the perspective of intersectoral input-output network, the influence of each sector on the aggregate volatility is measured. The input-output network is constructed by direct consumption coefficient matrix to study the role of sectoral shocks in the aggregate volatility. On the basis of the established input-output network, the key sectors are depicted from the perspective of the impact on the aggregate volatility, whose productivity shock has the greatest impact on the output volatility of the entire network. The empirical analysis of China's 2012 input and output data shows that the wholesale and retail, agricultural product sectors have the greatest impact on the aggregate volatility through network linkages, which can be regarded as key sectors.

Key words: input-output network, aggregate volatility, key sectors

中图分类号: 

  • F223

图1

4个部门投入产出网络简图"

表1

我国2012年网络关联影响系数排序(前十位)"

排序部门名称bi/biifi网络关联影响系数
1批发和零售11.457 58.300 687.853 8
2农产品11.243 08.191 087.002 1
3货币金融和其他金融服务11.521 47.407 375.724 8
4精炼石油和核燃料加工品11.310 92.142 872.160 5
5电力、热力生产和供应11.137 74.449 268.871 3
6石油和天然气开采产品10.489 36.779 166.416 3
7基础化学原料8.674 52.007 254.855 2
8煤炭采选产品7.998 24.850 544.530 8
9有色金属及其合金和铸件7.930 71.897 841.636 5
10商务服务7.243 62.560 639.124 7
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