基于SEIR模型公共卫生事件下物资分配优化研究

doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-9352.0.2021.256

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 通过SEIR模型对公共卫生事件爆发后应急救援物资需求进行预测,以应急物资需求缺货损失最小及物资分配总距离最短为目标构建优化模型。为确保分配的精确性,每周期对模型参数根据实时数据进行调整,并通过应急物资分配案例验证了模型的科学性与合理性。结果表明:该方法能有效解决重大公共卫生事件下动态需求下应急物资分配问题,为解决突发公共卫生事件下应急物资配置提供了新的思路。

关键词: 公共卫生事件, SEIR传染病模型, 应急救援物资分配, 动态分配, 配置决策

Abstract: The SEIR model is used to predict the demand for emergency relief materials after the outbreak of a public health event, and the optimization model is constructed with the goal of minimizing the loss of emergency material demand and the shortest total distance of material distribution. In order to ensure the accuracy of the allocation, the model parameters are adjusted according to real-time data every cycle. The scientificity and rationality of the model are verified through the case of emergency material distribution. The results show that this method can effectively solve the problem of emergency material allocation under dynamic demand under major public health incidents, and provides a new idea for solving emergency material allocation under public health emergencies.

Key words: public health event, SEIR infectious disease model, distribution of emergency relief materials, dynamic allocation, Configuration decisions

中图分类号:

F252

庄媛媛,张克勇. 基于SEIR模型公共卫生事件下物资分配优化研究[J]. 《山东大学学报(理学版)》, 2023, 58(3): 109-120.

ZHUANG Yuan-yuan, ZHANG Ke-yong. Optimization of material allocation under public health events based on SEIR model[J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY(NATURAL SCIENCE), 2023, 58(3): 109-120.

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