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《山东大学学报(理学版)》 ›› 2024, Vol. 59 ›› Issue (9): 79-87, 118.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-9352.0.2023.421

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基于上市公司风险披露数据的航空业风险源关联性与演化性分析

徐畅1(),惠雨乔2,韩汶1,*(),曹梦迪1,钟振方2,孟庆春2   

  1. 1. 山东省交通科学研究院, 山东 济南 250031
    2. 山东大学管理学院, 山东 济南 250100
  • 收稿日期:2023-10-03 出版日期:2024-09-20 发布日期:2024-10-10
  • 通讯作者: 韩汶 E-mail:xuchang@sdjtky.cn;hanwen@sdjtky.cn
  • 作者简介:徐畅(1987—), 男, 高级工程师, 硕士研究生, 研究方向为交通运输规划、交通政策研究. E-mail: xuchang@sdjtky.cn
  • 基金资助:
    基于一体化发展的山东省综合交通运输体制机制改革研究项目(2021B35);2021年度山东省交通运输厅科技计划项目

Analysis of correlation and evolutionary of risk sources in aviation industry based on risk disclosure data of listed companies

Chang XU1(),Yuqiao HUI2,Wen HAN1,*(),Mengdi CAO1,Zhenfang ZHONG2,Qingchun MENG2   

  1. 1. Shandong Transportation Research Institute, Jinan 250031, Shandong, China
    2. School of Management, Shandong University, Jinan 250100, Shandong, China
  • Received:2023-10-03 Online:2024-09-20 Published:2024-10-10
  • Contact: Wen HAN E-mail:xuchang@sdjtky.cn;hanwen@sdjtky.cn

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摘要：

根据潜在狄利克雷分配(latent Dirichlet allocation, LDA)得到的2005—2022年255家航空业上市公司的风险识别结果, 分析了客运航空公司、机场服务公司和空运物流公司披露的风险源。研究结果显示: 在风险关联方面, 不同子行业内部的风险源存在一定的关联, 这种关联与行业的业务属性密切相关, 客运航空业与机场服务业之间的风险关联相对较高, 表明二者存在共性风险或者相似的风险特征, 词共现分析说明成本风险和经营风险与其他风险类型关联度最高; 在风险演化方面, 包括声誉风险在内的5类风险有所增加, 而股票波动风险等其他3类风险则呈下降趋势, 由指数平滑法预测出客运航空业和空运物流业未来的总风险都呈上升趋势, 客运航空业的上升最快, 机场服务业的则呈下降趋势。

关键词: 风险关联, 风险演化, 航空业, 文本挖掘

Abstract:

This study analyzes the risk sources disclosed by passenger airlines, airport service companies and air logistics companies based on the risk identification results of 255 listed companies in the aviation industry from 2005 to 2022 obtained by LDA method. The results of the study show that: in terms of risk correlation, there is a certain inner correlation between the risk sources of different sub-industries, and this correlation is closely related to the business attributes of the industry, and the risk correlation between the passenger airline industry and the air transportation logistics industry is higher, which suggests that there is a common risk or a similar risk characteristic between, and the results obtained by word covariance indicate that cost risk and operational risk have the highest degree of correlation with the other types of risk; and in terms of risk evolution. The five types of risks, including reputation risk, have increased, while the other three types of risks, such as stock volatility risk, have shown a decreasing trend, and the exponential smoothing method predicts that the total risk size of the passenger aviation industry and the air logistics industry in the future are both showing an increasing trend, and the airport service industry has shown a decreasing trend while the passenger aviation industry has the fastest rising trend.

Key words: risk correlation, risk evolution, aviation industry, text mining

中图分类号: 

  • F506

表1

风险类型在不同子行业及以往文献中的涉及情况"

风险源 客运航空 机场服务 空运物流 文献[3] 文献[4] 文献[5]
燃料价格波动风险 √ √ × × × ×
债务流动性风险 √ × × √ × √
成本风险 √ √ √ √ × √
人事管理风险 × √ √ √ √ √
价格和股票风险 × √ × √ √ √
声誉风险 √ × × × × √
信息技术风险 √ × √ √ √ √
股票波动风险 √ × × √ √ √
经营风险 × √ √ √ √ √
合作伙伴风险 √ × √ × × √
碰撞和事故风险 √ × √ × × ×
法律实施风险 × √ √ √ √ √
收入风险 × √ √ √ √ √
公司扩张风险 × √ × √ √ √
客户风险 × √ × × × ×
股东和董事风险 × √ × √ √ √
保险安全风险 × √ × × × √
服务风险 × √ × × × ×

图1

航空运输业3个子行业风险关联性热力图"

图2

航空运输业3个子行业之间风险关联性"

表2

高频词的共现统计"

词语 词频统计 共现次数 共现率/%
成本 16 002 15 956 11.99
运营 15 083 15 020 11.28
能力 11 113 11 039 8.29
未来 9 717 9 659 7.26
库存 9 520 9 462 7.11
包含 9 373 9 292 6.98
服务 8 210 8 130 6.11
供应 7 784 7 737 5.81
价格 7 130 7 079 5.32
规则 7 109 7 072 5.31
系统 6 702 6 685 5.02
控制 6 664 6 611 4.97
失败 6 601 6 551 4.92
顾客 6 535 6 497 4.88
增长 6 376 6 333 4.76

表3

航空运输业3个子行业不同风险源大小在2013年前、后的变化"

风险类型 2013年前的主题权重/Wk 2013年后的主题权重/Wk
燃料价格波动风险 0.180 533 0.131 478
成本风险 0.106 036 0.126 047
债务流动性风险 0.114 736 0.156 370
伙伴关系风险 0.115 008 0.130 799
股票波动风险 0.159 054 0.105 227
声誉风险 0.113 377 0.118 579
碰撞和事故风险 0.094 889 0.125 820
信息技术风险 0.116 368 0.105 680

表4

不同年份航空运输业3个子行业披露风险总数量"

年份 客运航空业披露风险数量 机场服务业披露风险数量 空运物流业披露风险数量 年份 客运航空业披露风险数量 机场服务业披露风险数量 空运物流业披露风险数量
2005 185 9 2014 437 15 12
2006 311 8 2015 429 15 33
2007 362 27 8 2016 409 15 30
2008 392 39 8 2017 347 15 35
2009 437 41 9 2018 404 15 34
2010 447 41 9 2019 408 19 75
2011 520 39 8 2020 522 20 92
2012 511 40 2021 590 19 68
2013 481 15 11 2022 712 19 70

表5

指数平滑模型在航空运输业3个子行业中的应用"

指数平滑模型结果 子行业类型
空运物流业 机场服务业 客运航空业
趋势 加法 减法 加法
季节性 无 无 无
初始水平 -23.96 47.90 -249.08
初始趋势 9.00 2.51 126.12
平滑参数α 0.000 4 0.076 0 0.223 5
平滑参数β 5.91×10-12 0.076 0 0.188 5
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