JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY(NATURAL SCIENCE) ›› 2024, Vol. 59 ›› Issue (9): 79-87.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-9352.0.2023.421

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Analysis of correlation and evolutionary of risk sources in aviation industry based on risk disclosure data of listed companies

XU Chang1, HUI Yuqiao2, HAN Wen1*, CAO Mengdi1, ZHONG Zhenfang2, MENG Qingchun2   

  1. 1. Shandong Transportation Research Institute, Jinan 250031, Shandong, China;
    2. School of Management, Shandong University, Jinan 250100, Shandong, China
  • Published:2024-10-10

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Abstract: This study analyzes the risk sources disclosed by passenger airlines, airport service companies and air logistics companies based on the risk identification results of 255 listed companies in the aviation industry from 2005 to 2022 obtained by LDA method. The results of the study show that: in terms of risk correlation, there is a certain inner correlation between the risk sources of different sub-industries, and this correlation is closely related to the business attributes of the industry, and the risk correlation between the passenger airline industry and the air transportation logistics industry is higher, which suggests that there is a common risk or a similar risk characteristic between, and the results obtained by word covariance indicate that cost risk and operational risk have the highest degree of correlation with the other types of risk; and in terms of risk evolution. The five types of risks, including reputation risk, have increased, while the other three types of risks, such as stock volatility risk, have shown a decreasing trend, and the exponential smoothing method predicts that the total risk size of the passenger aviation industry and the air logistics industry in the future are both showing an increasing trend, and the airport service industry has shown a decreasing trend while the passenger aviation industry has the fastest rising trend.

Key words: risk correlation, risk evolution, aviation industry, text mining

CLC Number: 

  • F506
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