JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY(NATURAL SCIENCE) ›› 2025, Vol. 60 ›› Issue (12): 49-54.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-9352.0.2023.415

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Analysis of Mpox outbreak in Nigeria based on uncertain Logistic growth model

CHEN Lili, DING Chunxiao*   

  1. School of Mathematical Sciences, Liaocheng University, Liaocheng 252000, Shandong, China
  • Published:2025-12-10

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Abstract: In order to deal with uncertainty in the transmission process of Mpox, an uncertain Logistic growth model was used to analyze the Mpox epidemic in Nigeria. Firstly, the cumulative confirmed cases of Mpox published by the Nigeria Center for Disease Control and Prevention were sorted out, and the scatter plot of the data was illustrated. Then, a Logistic growth model was developed and the fitted Logistic growth model was obtained using least squares estimation, which in turn calculated the residuals. Verification of the instability of residual frequencies through five tests illustrated the inapplicability of the stochastic Logistic growth model to study the Mpox outbreak in Nigeria. The uncertain Logistic growth model was further used for modeling. Finally, the forecast values of the cumulative number of confirmed Mpox cases in Nigeria were given, and 95% confidence intervals were obtained. And the feasibility of the model was verified by cross-validation method and the direct comparison among observed values, forecast values and confidence intervals. This study provided some theoretical support for the prevention and control of Mpox epidemic and policy formulation in Nigeria.

Key words: uncertainty theory, uncertain regression analysis, uncertainty Logistic growth model, Mpox outbreak in Nigeria

CLC Number: 

  • O29
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[1] WEN Yanqing, LIU Baoliang, SHI Haiyan, CHEN Jianhui, FENG Yuejiao. Reliability evaluation for multi-component competing failure system based on uncertainty theory [J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY(NATURAL SCIENCE), 2023, 58(5): 76-83.
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