JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY(NATURAL SCIENCE) ›› 2022, Vol. 57 ›› Issue (1): 20-29.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-9352.0.2020.338

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Reliability analysis of road transportation system of hazardous chemicals tank truck based on fault tree and Bayesian network

CAO Run-feng1*, LIU Rui-xian2, LIU Jing2   

  1. 1. Glorious Sun School of Business and Management, Donghua University, Shanghai 200051, China;
    2. School of Economics and Management, North University of China, Taiyuan 030051, Shanxi, China
  • Published:2021-12-21

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Abstract: In order to ensure the reliability of the road transportation system of hazardous chemicals tank truck, a system reliability research method based on fault tree analysis and Bayesian network is proposed. Firstly, the Bayesian network model and conditional probability table according to the method of converting the fault tree model of the road transportation system to the Bayesian network was determined. Secondly, the Bayesian network two-way reasoning algorithm to perform inference calculations on the road transportation system of hazardous chemicals was combined. Finally, the reliability of the road transportation system of hazardous chemical tank trucks was analyzed. The research found that this method can forward infer the possibility of system failure based on the prior probability of root node failure, and can troubleshoot the failure through the results of the probability importance analysis of the root node, and calculate the posterior probability of the root node through reverse reasoning diagnose the fault. In the conclusion, the countermeasures against key risk events in the system are proposed.

Key words: fault tree analysis, bayesian network, transportation, probability importance, reliability analysis

CLC Number: 

  • U492.3+36.3
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