JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY(NATURAL SCIENCE) ›› 2024, Vol. 59 ›› Issue (9): 79-87, 118.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-9352.0.2023.421

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Analysis of correlation and evolutionary of risk sources in aviation industry based on risk disclosure data of listed companies

Chang XU1(),Yuqiao HUI2,Wen HAN1,*(),Mengdi CAO1,Zhenfang ZHONG2,Qingchun MENG2   

  1. 1. Shandong Transportation Research Institute, Jinan 250031, Shandong, China
    2. School of Management, Shandong University, Jinan 250100, Shandong, China
  • Received:2023-10-03 Online:2024-09-20 Published:2024-10-10
  • Contact: Wen HAN E-mail:xuchang@sdjtky.cn;hanwen@sdjtky.cn

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Abstract:

This study analyzes the risk sources disclosed by passenger airlines, airport service companies and air logistics companies based on the risk identification results of 255 listed companies in the aviation industry from 2005 to 2022 obtained by LDA method. The results of the study show that: in terms of risk correlation, there is a certain inner correlation between the risk sources of different sub-industries, and this correlation is closely related to the business attributes of the industry, and the risk correlation between the passenger airline industry and the air transportation logistics industry is higher, which suggests that there is a common risk or a similar risk characteristic between, and the results obtained by word covariance indicate that cost risk and operational risk have the highest degree of correlation with the other types of risk; and in terms of risk evolution. The five types of risks, including reputation risk, have increased, while the other three types of risks, such as stock volatility risk, have shown a decreasing trend, and the exponential smoothing method predicts that the total risk size of the passenger aviation industry and the air logistics industry in the future are both showing an increasing trend, and the airport service industry has shown a decreasing trend while the passenger aviation industry has the fastest rising trend.

Key words: risk correlation, risk evolution, aviation industry, text mining

CLC Number: 

  • F506

Table 1

Risk types in different sub-sectors and in previous literature"

风险源 客运航空 机场服务 空运物流 文献[3] 文献[4] 文献[5]
燃料价格波动风险 √ √ × × × ×
债务流动性风险 √ × × √ × √
成本风险 √ √ √ √ × √
人事管理风险 × √ √ √ √ √
价格和股票风险 × √ × √ √ √
声誉风险 √ × × × × √
信息技术风险 √ × √ √ √ √
股票波动风险 √ × × √ √ √
经营风险 × √ √ √ √ √
合作伙伴风险 √ × √ × × √
碰撞和事故风险 √ × √ × × ×
法律实施风险 × √ √ √ √ √
收入风险 × √ √ √ √ √
公司扩张风险 × √ × √ √ √
客户风险 × √ × × × ×
股东和董事风险 × √ × √ √ √
保险安全风险 × √ × × × √
服务风险 × √ × × × ×

Fig.1

Heat map of correlation between three sub-sectors of air transportation industry"

Fig.2

Risk correlation between three sub-sectors of air transportation industry"

Table 2

Covariance statistics for high-frequency words"

词语 词频统计 共现次数 共现率/%
成本 16 002 15 956 11.99
运营 15 083 15 020 11.28
能力 11 113 11 039 8.29
未来 9 717 9 659 7.26
库存 9 520 9 462 7.11
包含 9 373 9 292 6.98
服务 8 210 8 130 6.11
供应 7 784 7 737 5.81
价格 7 130 7 079 5.32
规则 7 109 7 072 5.31
系统 6 702 6 685 5.02
控制 6 664 6 611 4.97
失败 6 601 6 551 4.92
顾客 6 535 6 497 4.88
增长 6 376 6 333 4.76

Table 3

Changes in the size of different sources of risk before and after 2013"

风险类型 2013年前的主题权重/Wk 2013年后的主题权重/Wk
燃料价格波动风险 0.180 533 0.131 478
成本风险 0.106 036 0.126 047
债务流动性风险 0.114 736 0.156 370
伙伴关系风险 0.115 008 0.130 799
股票波动风险 0.159 054 0.105 227
声誉风险 0.113 377 0.118 579
碰撞和事故风险 0.094 889 0.125 820
信息技术风险 0.116 368 0.105 680

Table 4

Total number of disclosed risks by subsector in different years"

年份 客运航空业披露风险数量 机场服务业披露风险数量 空运物流业披露风险数量 年份 客运航空业披露风险数量 机场服务业披露风险数量 空运物流业披露风险数量
2005 185 9 2014 437 15 12
2006 311 8 2015 429 15 33
2007 362 27 8 2016 409 15 30
2008 392 39 8 2017 347 15 35
2009 437 41 9 2018 404 15 34
2010 447 41 9 2019 408 19 75
2011 520 39 8 2020 522 20 92
2012 511 40 2021 590 19 68
2013 481 15 11 2022 712 19 70

Table 5

Application of exponential smoothing model in three sub-sectors of air transportation industry"

指数平滑模型结果 子行业类型
空运物流业 机场服务业 客运航空业
趋势 加法 减法 加法
季节性 无 无 无
初始水平 -23.96 47.90 -249.08
初始趋势 9.00 2.51 126.12
平滑参数α 0.000 4 0.076 0 0.223 5
平滑参数β 5.91×10-12 0.076 0 0.188 5
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