突发传染病防控区域风险评估

doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-9352.0.2023.293

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用图论知识定义社会群体的网络结构,构建树形疫情新发地风险传播网络,结合风险评估模型,将疫情新发地的区域分为高、中、低三个风险等级,通过数据仿真验证划分方法的合理性。构建的树形区域风险传播网络能较好的描述疫情新发地社会网络关系中的疫情传播情况,利用确定区域节点之间的相关函数和节点风险值构建的疫情分类模型,刻画发生疫情区域的周边区域的风险等级,为疫情防控工作主动性、精准性及系统性提供理论依据。

关键词: 树形社会网络, 风险评估, 关联函数, 分级分区

Abstract: Using graph theory knowledge, the social groups network structure is defined in this text. A tree-shaped risk transmission network for the newly discovered epidemic site is constructed. Combining a risk assessment model, the epidemic site is divided into three risk levels: high, medium, and low. The rationality of the classification method is verified through data simulation. The results indicate that the constructed tree-structured regional risk propagation network can effectively depict the epidemic transmission within the social network of newly affected areas. By determining the correlation functions among regional nodes and constructing a risk classification model based on node risk values, the occurrence of epidemics in surrounding areas can be scientifically characterized. This model facilitates the proactive, precise, and systematic basis for epidemic prevention and control efforts.

Key words: tree social networks, risk assessment, associative functions, hierarchical zoning

中图分类号:

O157.6

刘勇,王笑,杨淑姝. 突发传染病防控区域风险评估[J]. 《山东大学学报(理学版)》, 2025, 60(7): 48-55.

LIU Yong, WANG Xiao, YANG Shushu. Regional risk assessment on the prevention and control of emerging infectious diseases[J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY(NATURAL SCIENCE), 2025, 60(7): 48-55.

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