JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY(NATURAL SCIENCE) ›› 2018, Vol. 53 ›› Issue (5): 80-87.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-9352.0.2017.573

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Interactive relationship between two stages of technology input and output in Qingdao city based on time delay effect

DONG Xing-lin, QI Xin*   

  1. College of Economic and Management, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266590, Shandong, China
  • Received:2017-09-18 Online:2018-05-20 Published:2018-05-25

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Abstract: Investment in science and technology is an important source of output of science and technology. In recent years, all areas with developed science and technology in our country have consistently maintained a high intensity of investment in science and technology. However, the role of science and technology in promoting scientific and technological output depends not only on the amount of investment in science and technology, but also on the timing and direction of investment in science and technology. In order to more effectively analyze the effect of science and technology investment on science and technology output in Qingdao, it is necessary to dynamically and quantitatively analyze the impact of science and technology input on science and technology output. Considering the lag effect of input and output, the VAR model is used to select the scientific indicators, and the results are analyzed by stationary test, Granger causality test, Johansen test impulse response function and variance decomposition using science and technology data in Qingdao from 2004 to 2015. The results show that in the stage of knowledge transformation, the time lag of science and technology input to output is two years, and the time lag is 0.5 years in the transformation stage of transformation. Science and technology investment and technology output influence each other. R&D full time staff impacts science and technology output significantly.

Key words: time lag effect, science and technology output, science and technology input, two stages, vector autoregression(VAR)model

CLC Number: 

  • F223
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