JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY(NATURAL SCIENCE) ›› 2025, Vol. 60 ›› Issue (4): 118-126.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-9352.0.2023.509

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Reproduction number estimation and dynamic analysis of Mpox transmission in China

JING Yue, HOU Qiang*   

  1. School of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan 030051, Shanxi, China
  • Published:2025-04-08

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Abstract: In order to study the spread of Mpox in China of 2023, firstly, the instantaneous regeneration of Mpox in China was estimated based on the Bayesian calculation method of Poisson process, and it was found that the instantaneous regeneration number continued to be lower than 1 after August 7 and decreased significantly after August 19. Secondly, the SEIQR model with isolation measures was established, which estimated that the basic reproduction number at the beginning of the Mpox epidemic in China was 1.433 and the isolation rate of patients in medical institutions was 0.42. Finally, the SEIQ1Q2R model was established to evaluate the effect of isolation in medical institutions or home isolation for different infected patients, and the basic reproduction number of Mpox epidemic in China decreased to 0.344, the isolation rate in medical institutions was 0.75, and the home isolation rate was 1.48. The basic reproduction number under this measure was significantly lower than the threshold of 1, indicating that the Mpox epidemic in China has been effectively controlled after adjusting the prevention and control measures.

Key words: instantaneous reproduction number, basic reproduction number, SEIQR model, SEIQ1Q2R model

CLC Number: 

  • O175
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