黄河源区未来河流生态流量及保障分析

doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-9352.0.2026.003

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 受全球变暖影响,黄河源区径流过程呈现复杂的时空响应。为揭示该区域未来气候与径流演变趋势,探究其河流生态流量风险,本研究基于CMIP6多模式集合数据驱动SWAT水文模型,模拟2025—2100年3种SSP情景下的未来径流变化;在此基础上,综合逐月次最小(大)值法、改进Tennant法与IHA-RVA法,确定生态流量阈值,并评估未来径流对于生态需水的满足程度。结果表明:(1)SWAT模型在黄河源区适用性良好(率定期与验证期NSE均大于0.8),偏差校正后的多模式集合数据能够可靠驱动径流模拟;(2)未来气候呈“暖湿化”趋势,降水波动增加,气温持续上升(最高、最低气温最大升幅分别达6.1 ℃、7.0 ℃);(3)未来径流量显著增加(增幅32.17%~58.26%),年内分布更趋集中,SSP2-4.5情景下年际波动最大;(4)未来生态需水保证率呈现显著季节差异,冬春季生态流量基本可保障,而夏秋季径流超过最大生态需水的比例显著升高(SSP5-8.5情景下部分月份超90%),预示汛期高流量生态风险加剧。研究结论可为区域水资源的合理配置与水生态保护提供科学依据。

关键词: 黄河源区, CMIP6, SWAT模型, 气候变化, 径流预估, 生态需水阈值, 生态需水保证率

Abstract: Driven by global warming, the runoff process in the source region of the Yellow River(YRSR)exhibited complex spatiotemporal responses. To reveal the future trends in climate and runoff evolution of this region, and to further assess its riverine ecological flow risks, this study employed the SWAT hydrological model, driven by a CMIP6 multi-model ensemble, to simulate future runoff changes from 2025 to 2100 under three shared socioeconomic pathway(SSP)scenarios; on this basis, the ecological flow thresholds were determined by integrating the monthly secondary minimum(maximum)method, the modified Tennant method, and the indicators of hydrologic alteration-range of variability approach(IHA-RVA)method, to evaluate the degree to which future runoff met ecological water demands. The results indicated the following:(1)The SWAT model demonstrated strong applicability in the YRSR(with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency>0.8 during both calibration and validation periods), and the bias-corrected multi-model ensemble data reliably drove runoff simulations.(2)The future climate exhibited a “warmer and wetter” trend characterized by increased precipitation fluctuations and continuous temperature rise, with the maximum increases in maximum and minimum temperatures reaching 6.1 ℃ and 7.0 ℃, respectively.(3)Future runoff increased significantly(by 32.17% to 58.26%)with a more concentrated intra-annual distribution, and the largest interannual fluctuation occurred under the SSP2-4.5 scenario.(4)The reliability of meeting future ecological water demands showed significant seasonal differences. The ecological base flow in winter and spring could generally be secured; however, the proportion of runoff exceeding the maximum ecological water demand in summer and autumn increased substantially(exceeding 90% in some months under the SSP5-8.5 scenario), indicating an intensified risk of high-flow ecological stress during the flood season. These findings provide a scientific basis for the rational allocation of regional water resources and aquatic ecological protection.

Key words: Yellow River source region, CMIP6, SWAT model, climate change, runoff projection, ecological water demand threshold, ecological water demand reliability

中图分类号:

P333

李爽,李岩,章四龙. 黄河源区未来河流生态流量及保障分析[J]. 《山东大学学报(理学版)》, 2026, 61(10): 170-183.

LI Shuang, LI Yan, ZHANG Silong. Analysis of future river ecological flow and safeguards in the source region of the Yellow River[J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY(NATURAL SCIENCE), 2026, 61(10): 170-183.

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