基于参数优化的MaxEnt模型的河南越冬大鸨潜在适生区预测

doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-9352.0.2026.018

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 精准解析大鸨东方亚种适宜生境的分布格局及其关键影响因子,提出具有针对性的保护措施。本研究基于野外调查、文献检索以及公共数据库,获取河南地区大鸨东方亚种(Otis tarda dybowskii)的213个分布点,通过ENMTools筛选得到82个有效分布点和10个环境因子,使用优化后的MaxEnt模型对越冬大鸨东方亚种的潜在适生区进行预测。结果表明:高适生区面积为0.21×10⁴ km²,占研究区总面积的1.29%;中适生区面积为0.19×10⁴ km²,占比1.18%。影响模型预测的主要环境因子是温度季节性变化、年均温变化范围、距水源距离以及降水量变异系数。本研究明确了河南越冬大鸨适生区的空间分布特征,可为该物种越冬栖息地的分级保护、黄河流域生态修复及旗舰物种保护范式的构建提供科学依据与实践参考。

关键词: 大鸨东方亚种, MaxEnt模型, 越冬适生区, 河南省

Abstract: Accurately elucidating the distribution patterns of suitable habitats and assessing habitat suitability are critical for the conservation of endangered wildlife. In this study, we integrated data from field surveys, literature reviews, and public databases to compile 213 distribution points for the great bustard(Otis tarda dybowskii) in Henan province, which were subsequently filtered using ENMTools to retain 82 spatially independent occurrence points and 10 environmental variables for modeling. The results indicated that the highly suitable area was 0.21×10⁴ km², accounting for 1.29% of the total study area, while the moderately suitable area was 0.19×10⁴ km², making up 1.18%. The primary environmental factors influencing the model predictions were temperature seasonality, annual mean temperature range, distance to water sources, and the coefficient of variation in precipitation. This study clarifies the spatial distribution characteristics of suitable habitats for overwintering Otis tarda dybowskii in this area, providing a scientific basis and practical reference for the graded conservation of the species wintering habitats, ecological restoration in the Yellow River Basin, and the establishment of a conservation paradigm for flagship species.

Key words: Otis tarda dybowskii, MaxEnt model, overwintering suitable habitats, Henan Province

中图分类号:

Q958.1

李鹏举,陈天恩,赵梓涵,赵帝,赵海鹏. 基于参数优化的MaxEnt模型的河南越冬大鸨潜在适生区预测[J]. 《山东大学学报(理学版)》, 2026, 61(10): 158-169.

LI Pengju, CHEN Tianen, ZHAO Zihan, ZHAO Di, ZHAO Haipeng. Prediction of potential suitable wintering areas for Otis tarda dybowskii in Henan Province based on the optimized MaxEnt model[J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY(NATURAL SCIENCE), 2026, 61(10): 158-169.

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