三江源水源涵养功能对冻土变化的响应机制

doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-9352.0.2026.046

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为揭示冻土退化对高寒区水源涵养功能的物理作用机制,突破现有研究中将冻土简化为静态类型变量、地理探测器停留于全域尺度所导致的认知局限。本研究以三江源区为研究区,耦合InVEST模型与地理探测器,引入活动层深度这一冻土动态物理属性,对1996—2020年水源涵养量的时空格局进行定量评估,并在多年冻土区与季节冻土区开展驱动机制的分区对比分析。结果表明,研究区水源涵养总量呈微弱增长,增长率为0.226×10⁸ m³/a,空间上呈“东南高、西北低”格局,西北部多年冻土区呈下降趋势;降水量是水源涵养空间分异的绝对主导因子(q值为0.699—0.772),冻土类型独立解释力最弱(q值为0.048—0.107),但呈上升趋势,与降水的交互作用显著增强(q值为0.728—0.788)。分区机制差异显著:多年冻土区降水量绝对主导(q值为0.749—0.818),活动层深度与降水的交互呈极强协同增强(q值为0.767—0.829),证实永冻层隔水底板对降水径流响应的放大作用;季节冻土区呈“降水-冻融双核驱动”模式,活动层深度跃升为独立核心驱动因子(q值为0.211—0.322),但其与降水的交互作用在所有降水组合中相对最弱(q值为0.714—0.756),表明降水与冻融过程在空间驱动效应上存在显著解耦。同时,2006—2010年及2011—2015年实测径流增幅显著高于水源涵养增幅(比值分别为1.75和1.16),呈现“水文解耦”迹象。通过本研究可知,冻土通过“背景隔水层调制”与“活跃活动层驱动”两条不同路径影响水源涵养功能;持续的冻土退化可能削弱高寒生态系统的水源调蓄能力,对“亚洲水塔”水资源供给稳定性构成潜在风险。

关键词: 三江源区, 水源涵养功能, 冻土, InVEST模型, 地理探测器, 驱动机制分析

Abstract: To elucidate the physical mechanisms by which permafrost degradation affected water conservation functions in alpine regions, and to address the cognitive limitations arising from the prevalent simplification of permafrost as a static categorical variable and the confinement of geographic detector analyses to the global scale, this study took the Three-River Headwaters Region as the study area. By coupling the InVEST model with the geographic detector, and introducing active layer thickness as a dynamic physical attribute of permafrost, we quantitatively assessed the spatiotemporal patterns of water conservation amount during 1996-2020, and conducted a comparative analysis of driving mechanisms between the permafrost zone and the seasonally frozen ground zone through a subregional approach. The results indicated that the total water conservation amount in the study area exhibited a weak and non-significant increasing trend, with a growth rate of 0.226×10⁸ m³/a, and a spatial pattern of “high in the southeast and low in the northwest”, while a decreasing trend was observed in the northwestern permafrost zone. Precipitation emerged as the dominant factor governing the spatial differentiation of water conservation, with q values ranging from 0.699 to 0.772; the independent explanatory power of permafrost type was the weakest(q values: 0.048-0.107)but showed an increasing trend, and its interactive effect with precipitation was significantly enhanced(q values: 0.728-0.788). Notable differences in driving mechanisms were found between subregions: in the permafrost zone, precipitation played an absolutely dominant role(q values: 0.749-0.818), and the interaction between active layer thickness and precipitation exhibited a strongly synergistic enhancement(q values: 0.767-0.829), confirming the amplifying effect of the impermeable permafrost table on precipitation-runoff responses; in the seasonally frozen ground zone, a “precipitation-freeze-thaw dual-core” driving mode was identified, where active layer thickness rose to become an independent core driving factor(q values: 0.211-0.322), yet its interaction with precipitation was relatively the weakest among all precipitation combinations(q values: 0.714-0.756), indicating a significant decoupling between precipitation and freeze-thaw processes in terms of spatial driving effects. Meanwhile, during 2006-2010 and 2011-2015, the observed runoff increases were markedly higher than the increases in water conservation, with ratios of 1.75 and 1.16, respectively, suggesting signs of “hydrological decoupling”. This paper shows that permafrost influenced water conservation functions through two distinct pathways: “background aquiclude modulation” and “active layer driving”; progressive permafrost degradation might weaken the water storage and regulation capacity of alpine ecosystems, posing potential risks to the stability of water supply from the “Asian Water Tower”.

Key words: Three-River Headwater Region, water conservation function, permafrost, InVEST model, geodetector, driving mechanism analysis

中图分类号:

K903

石洪飞,侯光良,唐中华. 三江源水源涵养功能对冻土变化的响应机制[J]. 《山东大学学报(理学版)》, 2026, 61(10): 184-200.

SHI Hongfei, HOU Guangliang, TANG Zhonghua. Response mechanism of water conservation function to permafrost changes in the Three-River Source Region[J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY(NATURAL SCIENCE), 2026, 61(10): 184-200.

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