基于自适应残差动态融合图注意力网络的交通速度预测

doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-9352.0.2024.363

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在现代智能交通系统领域里,准确预测交通速度对缓解交通拥堵、提高道路安全以及优化交通管理有着重要意义。为提升现有的交通速度预测模型在中长期预测任务中的性能,本文提出一种自适应残差动态融合图注意力网络的交通速度预测方法,该方法中的双模态图架构通过对自适应邻接矩阵与动态邻接矩阵进行并行处理和动态融合,可以捕捉路网静态拓扑和动态时空关联特征;采用门控时间卷积实现特征筛选,并利用多头注意力机制增强时空特征表达能力,设计动态特征融合单元,通过残差连接保留静态拓扑信息,结合跨层多尺度特征融合避免特征退化。实验结果显示,与Graph WaveNet相比,本模型在METR-LA和PEMS-BAY数据集60 min预测任务中均方根误差分别减少22.5%和22.6%。该模型能够实时适应交通状态的变化,为交通管理部门提供精准的速度预测,辅助拥堵疏导、动态路径规划和突发事件响应,具备较高的实际应用价值。

关键词: 城市交通, 交通速度预测, 双模态图融合, 动态图卷积网络, 残差机制, 注意力机制

Abstract: In the field of modern intelligent transportation systems, accurate prediction of traffic speed is of great significance to alleviate traffic congestion, improve road safety, and optimize traffic management. To improve the performance of existing traffic speed prediction models in medium and long-term prediction tasks, this paper proposes an adaptive residual dynamic fusion graph attention network for traffic speed prediction, in which the bimodal graph architecture can capture static topology and dynamic spatio-temporal correlation features of the road network through parallel processing and dynamic fusion of adaptive and dynamic adjacency matrices. Applying gated temporal convolution to realize the feature screening, and using multi-head attention mechanism to enhance the spatio-temporal feature expression ability, designing dynamic feature fusion unit, retaining static topological information through residual connection, and combining cross-layer multi-scale feature fusion to avoid feature degradation. The experimental results show that the root mean square error of this model is reduced by 22.5% and 22.6% compared with Graph WaveNet in the 60 min prediction task for the METR-LA and PEMS-BAY datasets, respectively. The model can adapt to the changes of the traffic state in real time, provide accurate speed prediction for the traffic management department, and assist in the congestion diversion, dynamic path planning, and emergency response. The model has high practical application value.

Key words: city traffic, traffic speed prediction, bimodal map fusion, dynamic graph convolutional network, residual connection, attention mechanism

中图分类号:

TP391

张鲁宁,王景升. 基于自适应残差动态融合图注意力网络的交通速度预测[J]. 《山东大学学报(理学版)》, 2026, 61(5): 90-101.

ZHANG Luning, WANG Jingsheng. Traffic speed prediction study based on adaptive residual dynamic fusion graph attention network[J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY(NATURAL SCIENCE), 2026, 61(5): 90-101.

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