JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY(NATURAL SCIENCE) ›› 2019, Vol. 54 ›› Issue (7): 50-56.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-9352.0.2018.715

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Short-term load forecasting model based on autoencoder and PSOA-CNN

Wen-qing WANG1(),Ao-yang HAN2,Li-tao YU2,Zhi-sheng ZHANG1,*()   

  1. 1. College of Electrical Engineering, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071, Shandong, China
    2. Qingdao Electric Power Company of State Grid, Qingdao 266002, Shandong, China
  • Received:2018-12-12 Online:2019-07-20 Published:2019-06-27
  • Contact: Zhi-sheng ZHANG E-mail:517660558@qq.com;slnzzs@126.com
  • Supported by:
    国家自然科学基金资助项目(51477078)

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Abstract:

A short-term load forecasting model which combines the autoencoder and convolutional neural network optimized by particle swarm optimization is proposed. Firstly, the autoencoder is used to process the relevant variable data, reduce the noise variable of the required data, and improve the prediction efficiency. Then particle swarm optimization is used to optimize the weight and threshold of the convolutional neural network., which can effectively improve the prediction accuracy and prediction speed of the prediction model. By simulating the load data of the actual power grid, it is verified that the proposed model has higher prediction accuracy.

Key words: convolutional neural network, autoencode, particle swarm optimization, short-term load forecasting

CLC Number: 

  • TM715

Fig.1

CNN structure chart"

Fig.2

Prediction flow based on autoencoder and PSOA-CNN"

Fig.3

Forecasting error curve for comparison of two kinds of model"

Table 1

Comparison result of forecasting performance"

模型平均绝对误差/%最大相对误差/%
常规CNN3.9310.12
自编码器与PSOA-CNN结合1.875.95

Table 2

Forecasting errors of 2 models (7 d)"

日期平均绝对误差/%最大相对误差/%
模型1模型2模型1模型2
14.252.0110.486.31
23.931.8710.125.95
33.251.339.254.78
43.161.529.444.14
53.371.198.704.25
63.672.068.896.19
74.312.2910.956.72
平均值3.701.769.695.47
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