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《山东大学学报(理学版)》 ›› 2026, Vol. 61 ›› Issue (10): 59-71.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-9352.0.2026.146

• 人地系统与生态服务 • 上一篇    

黄河流域生态系统服务供需及生态价值的变化

闫姝婉1,2,刘建1,2*   

  1. 1. 山东大学环境研究院, 山东 青岛 266237;2. 山东大学黄河国家战略研究院, 山东 青岛 266237
  • 发布日期:2026-10-16
  • 通讯作者: 刘建(1978—),男,教授,博士生导师,博士,研究方向为生态系统对环境变化的响应和机理. E-mail:ecology@sdu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:闫姝婉(2000—),女,博士研究生,研究方向为生态系统服务评估. E-mail:202212985@mail.sdu.edu.cn*通信作者:刘建(1978—),男,教授,博士生导师,博士,研究方向为生态系统对环境变化的响应和机理. E-mail:ecology@sdu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金资助项目(42577009)

Changes in ecosystem service supply-demand and ecological value in the Yellow River Basin

YAN Shuwan1, 2, LIU Jian1,2*   

  1. 1. Environment Research Institute, Shandong University, Qingdao 266237, Shandong, China;
    2. Yellow River National Strategy Institute, Shandong University, Qingdao 266237, Shandong, China
  • Published:2026-10-16

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摘要： 黄河流域作为中国重要的生态安全屏障和经济社会发展地区,其生态系统服务的供需匹配将直接关系到区域生态安全和高质量发展目标的实现。本研究利用时空数据量化黄河流域5类重要生态系统服务的供需演变规律与匹配模式,并基于自然发展、生态保护、经济发展和耕地保护4种不同发展情景下的土地利用格局预测生态价值的潜在变化,构建“历史供需动态演变-未来多情景价值评估”的递进式分析框架。研究发现,在2000年至2020年期间,5类生态系统服务供需呈现差异化的演变模式,食物生产和土壤保持的供给持续增加,碳固存、产水服务和食物生产的需求也持续增加,而产水服务的供给和土壤保持的需求则呈现先减后增的变化。5类生态系统服务在黄河流域整体以盈余为主,其中土壤保持的供需平衡在陕西和山西的部分县域有所改善,但碳固存在黄河流域下游存在供需失衡的风险。4种发展情景中,生态保护情景最有利于保护生态系统服务的供给能力,该情景下生态价值增加的县域占比70.42%,其后依次是耕地保护情景、自然发展情景和经济发展情景。本研究基于历史演变规律和未来发展预测的双重视角,为黄河流域生态系统服务供需关系的可持续管理和发展路径规划提供科学依据,有助于推动区域生态安全和高质量发展。

关键词: 生态系统服务, 供需关系, 土地利用情景预测, 生态价值, 黄河流域

Abstract: The Yellow River Basin serves as a vital ecological barrier and socioeconomic hub in China, and its matching of ecosystem service supply and demand will directly influence regional environmental security and the achievement of high-quality development goals. This study quantified the evolution and matching patterns of supply and demand for five key ecosystem services in the Yellow River Basin using spatiotemporal data, and predicted potential changes in ecological value based on future land use under four different development scenarios: natural development, ecological conservation, economic development, and farmland protection. Thus, a progressive analytical framework, “historical dynamic evolution of supply and demand-future multi-scenario valuation”, was established. The study found that the supply and demand of five ecosystem services displayed varied trends during 2000-2020. The supply of food production and soil conservation increased continuously, and the demand for carbon sequestration, water yield, and food production also showed a steady increase, while the supply of water yield and the demand for soil conservation exhibited a decrease followed by an increase. Five ecosystem services exhibited surpluses across most regions of the Yellow River Basin. While the supply-demand balance for soil conservation improved in some counties in Shaanxi and Shanxi, the lower reaches of the basin faced a risk of carbon sequestration supply-demand imbalance. Among the four development scenarios, the ecological conservation scenario was the most conducive to preserving the provisioning capacity of ecosystem services, with 70.42% of counties experiencing an increase in ecological value under this scenario. The subsequent scenarios were farmland protection, natural development, and economic development, which progressively weakened the provisioning capacity of ecosystem services. Based on a dual perspective that encompasses historical evolutionary patterns and future development projections, this study provides a scientific basis for the sustainable management of the supply-demand relationship for ecosystem services in the Yellow River Basin, thereby enhancing regional ecological security and contributing to high-quality development.

Key words: ecosystem services, supply-demand relationship, land use scenario prediction, ecological value, Yellow River Basin

中图分类号: 

  • X32
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