中国猴痘传播的再生数估计与动态分析

doi:10.6040/j.issn.1671-9352.0.2023.509

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为了研究2023年猴痘在中国传播的规律,首先基于泊松过程的贝叶斯计算方法估计了中国猴痘瞬时再生数,发现瞬时再生数在8月7日后持续低于1,且在8月19日后出现显著下降;其次建立带隔离措施的SEIQR模型,估计疫情初期的基本再生数为1.433,患者在医疗机构的隔离率为0.42;最后,建立SEIQ₁Q₂R模型,并用于评估对染病者实行医疗机构隔离或居家隔离的效果,得到该措施下基本再生数下降为0.344,在医疗机构的隔离率为0.75,居家隔离率为1.48。该措施下基本再生数明显小于阈值1,表明调整防控措施后,中国猴痘疫情得到有效控制。

关键词: 瞬时再生数, 基本再生数, SEIQR模型, SEIQ₁Q₂R模型

Abstract: In order to study the spread of Mpox in China of 2023, firstly, the instantaneous regeneration of Mpox in China was estimated based on the Bayesian calculation method of Poisson process, and it was found that the instantaneous regeneration number continued to be lower than 1 after August 7 and decreased significantly after August 19. Secondly, the SEIQR model with isolation measures was established, which estimated that the basic reproduction number at the beginning of the Mpox epidemic in China was 1.433 and the isolation rate of patients in medical institutions was 0.42. Finally, the SEIQ₁Q₂R model was established to evaluate the effect of isolation in medical institutions or home isolation for different infected patients, and the basic reproduction number of Mpox epidemic in China decreased to 0.344, the isolation rate in medical institutions was 0.75, and the home isolation rate was 1.48. The basic reproduction number under this measure was significantly lower than the threshold of 1, indicating that the Mpox epidemic in China has been effectively controlled after adjusting the prevention and control measures.

Key words: instantaneous reproduction number, basic reproduction number, SEIQR model, SEIQ₁Q₂R model

中图分类号:

O175

景月,侯强. 中国猴痘传播的再生数估计与动态分析[J]. 《山东大学学报(理学版)》, 2025, 60(4): 118-126.

JING Yue, HOU Qiang. Reproduction number estimation and dynamic analysis of Mpox transmission in China[J]. JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY(NATURAL SCIENCE), 2025, 60(4): 118-126.

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