《山东大学学报(理学版)》 ›› 2025, Vol. 60 ›› Issue (12): 49-54.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-9352.0.2023.415
陈丽丽,丁春晓*
CHEN Lili, DING Chunxiao*
摘要： 为了处理猴痘传播过程中的不确定性,利用不确定Logistic增长模型对尼日利亚猴痘疫情进行分析。首先,对尼日利亚疾控中心公布的猴痘累计确诊病例数据进行整理,并绘制出数据散点图。其次,建立Logistic增长模型,利用最小二乘法估计得到拟合Logistic增长模型,进而计算残差, 通过5种检验方法验证残差频率是不稳定的,说明随机logistic增长模型研究尼日利亚猴痘疫情的不适用性,进而采用不确定Logistic增长模型进行建模。最后,给出尼日利亚猴痘累计确诊病例数的预测值和95%的置信区间,并且通过交叉验证方法和直观对比观测值、预测值和置信区间验证模型的可行性。本研究为尼日利亚猴痘疫情防控和政策制定提供一定的理论支撑。
中图分类号:
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| [1] | 温艳清,刘宝亮,师海燕,陈剑慧,丰月姣. 基于不确定理论的多部件竞争失效系统的可靠性评估[J]. 《山东大学学报(理学版)》, 2023, 58(5): 76-83. |
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