JOURNAL OF SHANDONG UNIVERSITY(NATURAL SCIENCE) ›› 2022, Vol. 57 ›› Issue (1): 56-68.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1671-9352.0.2021.054

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An SEAIR model with relapse effect and its application in COVID-19 transmission

ZHANG Yu-qian, ZHANG Tai-lei*   

  1. School of Science, Changan University, Xian 710064, Shaanxi, China
  • Published:2021-12-21

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Abstract: In this paper, an SEAIR epidemic model with relapse and asymptomatic infection is established, and the basic reproduction number R0 is given. It is proved that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when R0<1, the disease-free equilibrium is unstable and the disease is uniformly persistent when R0>1. As an application of the model, the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases reported in Hubei province is selected in this study. The model is fitted with reported data and simulated the development trend of the disease. Finally, the sensitivity of the parameters is analyzed, and the effect of different relapse rates on the COVID-19 is studied. The results show that the higher the relapse rates, the more serious the COVID-19 will be. The findings suggest that strict quarantine measures and wearing masks are recommended to reduce the infection rates of the disease and reduce the relapse rates of the disease.

Key words: relapse, an SEAIR infectious disease model, stability, partial rank correlation coefficients, COVID-19

CLC Number: 

  • O175
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